G4 2565 · PGD → RFD

took off 3:13 PM ET · expected to land 4:43 PM CT (scheduled 3:05 PM ET → 5:11 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at RFD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RFD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PGD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RFD

↓ RFD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PGD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

RFD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2565 · PGD → RFD

Odds over time

How late will it get to RFD?