G4 256 · AVL → SFB

departs 6:24 PM ET · arrives 8:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.11 in

SFB (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 256 · AVL → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?