G4 268 · SFB → AVL

departs 8:45 PM ET · arrives 10:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day

↑ 8pm departures from SFB are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ SFB usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.30 in

AVL (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 268 · SFB → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?