G4 273 · BLI → LAS

departs 7:30 AM PT · arrives 10:11 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at BLI that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BLI (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 273 · BLI → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?