Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2817
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
G4 2817 · AUS → SFB
departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 11:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SFB that day
↑
Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
SFB (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.