Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
G4 2845 · FSD → SFB
departs 6:36 PM CT · arrives 10:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
FSD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFB (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.