Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
G4 2856 · TRI → SFB
departs 3:22 PM ET · arrives 4:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave TRI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TRI (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFB (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.