Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
G4 2863 · SFB → XNA
departs 12:06 PM ET · arrives 1:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day
↑
12pm departures from SFB are often late
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.30 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.