G4 2865 · SFB → LSE

took off 8:08 AM ET · landed 9:50 AM CT (scheduled 8:00 AM ET → 10:10 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LSE more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LSE?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from SFB are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.30 in

LSE (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2865 · SFB → LSE

Odds over time

How late did it get to LSE?