Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
G4 2866 · USA → SFB
departs 2:52 PM ET · arrives 4:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave USA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SFB is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
USA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.06 in
SFB (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.