Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2881
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
G4 2881 · SDF → PGD
departs 3:18 PM ET · arrives 5:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PGD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to PGD?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PGD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.