Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2953
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
G4 2953 · SBN → SFB
departs 9:36 AM ET · arrives 12:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SFB (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.