G4 3041 · PGD → TYS

departs 8:37 PM ET · arrives 10:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from PGD are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at TYS that day

Weather at each end

PGD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 3041 · PGD → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?