G4 3088 · VPS → XNA

departs 7:41 AM CT · arrives 9:39 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 3.9 in of rain forecast at VPS that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from VPS are usually not late

Weather at each end

VPS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip3.90 in

XNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 3088 · VPS → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?