Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 459
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
G4 459 · JAX → DSM
departs 8:23 PM ET · arrives 9:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.22 in
DSM (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.