Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
G4 461 · PDX → DSM
departs 5:35 PM PT · arrives 10:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DSM is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at PDX that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DSM (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.