G4 497 · LEX → FLL

departs 9:11 PM ET · arrives 11:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LEX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 497 · LEX → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?