G4 638 · AZA → FSD

departs 7:30 AM MT · arrives 12:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FSD?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from AZA are usually not late

Weather at each end

AZA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FSD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 638 · AZA → FSD

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSD?