Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
G4 851 · PGD → MDT
departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 9:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
5.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave PGD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MDT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDT?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MDT that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from PGD are usually not late
Weather at each end
PGD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
MDT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.