G4 907 · SBN → PGD

departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 10:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PGD?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

PGD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 907 · SBN → PGD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PGD?