Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3402 · AUS → DFW
departs 6:54 PM CT · arrives 8:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Sat 10/3 42%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,133 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.