Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3454 · CHS → ORD
departs 8:21 PM ET · arrives 10:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CHS that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
CHS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.73 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.