MQ 3470 · XNA → ORD

departs 2:13 PM CT · arrives 4:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3470 · XNA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?