MQ 3476 · DFW → HSV

departs 7:10 AM CT · arrives 9:06 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HSV?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HSV that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.06 in

HSV (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3476 · DFW → HSV

Odds over time

How late will it get to HSV?