Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3481 LANDED 5:17 AM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

MQ 3481 · GRR → ORD

took off 5:46 AM ET · landed 5:17 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3481 · GRR → ORD

Odds over time