MQ 3501 · ORD → LIT

departs 5:17 PM CT · arrives 7:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ ORD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3501 · ORD → LIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIT?