Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
MQ 3506 · ELP → DFW
departs 1:41 PM MT · arrives 4:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.