MQ 3538 · ORD → ICT

departs 7:53 PM CT · arrives 9:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ICT?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ICT

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ICT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3538 · ORD → ICT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICT?