MQ 3543 · DFW → MLI

took off 2:36 PM CT · expected to land 4:04 PM CT (scheduled 2:05 PM CT → 4:22 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MLI?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MLI

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.22 in

MLI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3543 · DFW → MLI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MLI?