Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3578 · DFW → HSV
departs 7:05 AM CT · arrives 9:01 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at HSV that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into HSV at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.08 in
HSV (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.