Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3578 · HSV → DFW
departs 9:32 AM CT · arrives 11:41 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 10/3 50%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at HSV that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
9am departures from HSV are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
HSV (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.95 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.