Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3584 IN THE AIR (OFF 8:36 AM CT, ETA 9:40 AM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

MQ 3584 · ORD → SGF

took off 8:36 AM CT · expected to land 9:40 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SGF

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SGF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3584 · ORD → SGF

Odds over time