MQ 3603 · XNA → DFW

took off 10:38 AM CT · expected to land 11:29 AM CT (scheduled 10:32 AM CT → 11:57 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3603 · XNA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?