Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3629 LANDED 6:37 PM ET, ~66 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

MQ 3629 · DFW → SDF

took off 4:04 PM CT · landed 6:37 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.21 in

SDF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3629 · DFW → SDF

Odds over time