MQ 3639 · TPA → BNA

departs 6:07 PM ET · arrives 7:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3639 · TPA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?