MQ 3642 · TPA → BNA

departs 12:33 PM ET · arrives 1:37 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3642 · TPA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?