Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3675
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3675 · MEM → ORD
departs 2:07 PM CT · arrives 4:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at MEM that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
MEM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.