Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3675
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3675 · ORD → MEM
departs 11:45 AM CT · arrives 1:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at MEM that day
↑
11am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Arrivals into MEM at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.