Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3678
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3678 · DFW → MEM
departs 3:10 PM CT · arrives 4:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Sat 10/3 41%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at MEM that day
↑
Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.