Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
MQ 3686 · DFW → MLU
departs 10:44 PM CT · arrives 11:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLU more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MLU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MLU?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MLU usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
MLU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.