Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3726
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3726 · AUS → DFW
departs 3:44 PM CT · arrives 4:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3 44%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±4 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.