MQ 3749 · PHX → MFE

departs 7:31 PM MT · arrives 12:15 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MFE?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MFE that day

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into MFE at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MFE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MFE (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3749 · PHX → MFE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFE?