MQ 3778 · RIC → DFW

departs 11:55 AM ET · arrives 2:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RIC that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.30 in

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3778 · RIC → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?