MQ 3802 · AEX → DFW

departs 6:07 AM CT · arrives 7:31 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from AEX are usually not late

Weather at each end

AEX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.32 in

DFW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3802 · AEX → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?