MQ 3839 · BIS → DFW

departs 2:05 PM CT · arrives 4:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BIS

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BIS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3839 · BIS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?