Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3840
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
MQ 3840 · XNA → DFW
departs 3:57 PM CT · arrives 5:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 19%
Fri 10/9 16%
Sat 10/10 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.