Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
MQ 3843 · DFW → XNA
departs 6:30 PM CT · arrives 7:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.06 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.