Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3847
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3847 · XNA → DFW
departs 2:47 PM CT · arrives 4:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sat 10/3 39%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at XNA that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.