Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3848
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
MQ 3848 · ORD → XNA
departs 11:45 AM CT · arrives 1:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.