MQ 3859 · DFW → FSM

departs 3:42 PM CT · arrives 5:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FSM?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FSM

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.08 in

FSM (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3859 · DFW → FSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSM?